National Rally, the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has surged to first place in the first round of legislative elections, according to a projection produced by Ipsos Talan today (30 June) after polls closed, Euronews reported.

The National Rally may have gained 34% of votes cast, according to the poll, a slight decrease on opinion polls last week which put the party and its allies at 36%.

If confirmed, that would represent a significant surge for Le Pen’s party, formerly called the National Front, as support for centrist President Emmanuel Macron falls.

But it might not be enough to secure a majority in France's lower legislative chamber, with Ipsos projecting that Le Pen and her allies from the Republicans party may get 230 to 280 seats, just short of an absolute majority of 289.

Macron’s Ensemble coalition reached 20.3% of the vote, the poll suggests – down on where he was at the equivalent stage of 2022 legislative elections, but an improvement on recent EU elections, where he gained just 14.6%.

Left-wing parties including the New Popular Front, an alliance formed after elections were called from the Socialist Party, Greens, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed – reached 28.1% of the vote, the projection said.

According to those results, Macron could end up with just 70-100 seats, while the New Popular Front would have 125-165, in a left-wing bloc dominated by Mélenchon's party, Ipsos said.

It looks like a bad night for right-wing firebrand Eric Zemmour, whose Reconquest party has sunk to under 1% – votes that have likely gone to his rival Le Pen, as the far-right vote consolidates.